Spare Parts Demand Forecasting During Covid 19 pandemic
(Automotive Company Case Study)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.38035/dijefa.v2i2.852Keywords:
Forecasting, Triple Exponential Smoothing, Safety Stock, Reorder PointAbstract
The research was conducted to analyze the calculation of demand forecasting and inventory of spare parts . The data collection method uses descriptive quantitative by conducting literature studies, interviews, and collecting sample data of 140 spare parts from June 2019 to June 2020. The data classification process with FSN method, obtained 13 fast moving spare parts use for calculating demand forecasting based on the Triple Exponential Smoothing method. The results from the trial error to get the smoothing value of alpha, beta and gamma errors prioritize to best MAPE <5%. Some MAPE errors above 5% are X000000 000254 MAPE = 5.68% , X000000 005566 MAPE = 21.12, X400 401 10 72 MAPE = 13.14, and X400 401 26 71 MAPE = 16.70. The calculation result of safety stock and reorder point find 4 spare parts have low level inventory have to reorder.
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Bacchetti, A., & Saccani, N. (2012). Spare parts classification and demand forecasting for stock control: Investigating the gap between research and practice. Journal Omega, 40(6), 722–737, ISSN 0305-0483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2011.06.008
Brindha, G. (2014). Inventory Management. International Journal of Innovative Reserch in Science, Engineering and Technology, 3(1), 8163–8176, ISSN 2319-8753.
Dewi, A. U., Madelan, S., & Saluy, A. B. (2021). Analysis of the_Application of Total Quality Management in Lens Products in PT. XYZ. Scholars Middle East Publishers, 7(3), 14–20, ISSN(p) 2412-9771, ISSN(e) 2412-897X. https://doi.org/10.36348/sb.2021.v07i03.00
Feizal, D. A., Sudjono, S., & Saluy, A. B. (2021). The Effect of Profitability, Leverage and Liquidity on Dividend Policies for Construction Issuers in 2014-2019. Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 2(2), 131–144.
Firdaus, A. F., Madelan, S., & Saluy, A. B. (2021). Supplier/Partnership Selection System Analysis Based on Analytic Hierarchy Method Process in Oil and Gas Drilling Project (Case Study: PT.KMI). International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 6(3), 403–411, ISSN 2456-2165.
Heizer, J., Render, B., & Munson, C. (2017). Operation Management-Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (12th ed.). Pearson Education Inc.
Indrajit, R. E., & Djokopranoto, R. (2017). Materials Requirements Planning-Entrprise Resource Planning dari MRP menuju ERP. LSP LPK Preinexus, Jakarta.
Kemalasari, N., & Saluy, A. B. (2018). The Effect of Human Capital and Relation Capital on Company Performance. Saudi Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences (SJHSS), 3(5), 642–650, ISSN 2415-6256.
Kinasih, S., Agoestanto, A., & Sugiman. (2018). Optimasi Parameter pada Model Exponential Smoothing Menggunakan Metode Golden Section untuk Pemilihan Model Terbaik dan Peramalan Jumlah Wisatawan Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Unnes Journal of Mathematics, 7(1), 37–46, ISSN(p) 2252-6943, ISSN(e) 2460-5859.
Kini, L., Novareza, O., & Eunike, A. (2015). Manajemen Persediaan Suku Cadang Mesin High Pressure Compressor dengan Klasifikasi FSN-ABC-VED ( Studi Kasus di PT. Exterran Indonesia , GOSP Cepu ). Jurnal Rekayasa Dan Manajemen Sistem Industri, 3(2), 333–342, ISSN 2355-2166.
Madelan, S. (2015). Infrastruktur dan Efisiensi Logistik. In 20 Tahun Perjalanan Ekonomi Indonesia (pp. 413–431). INDEF.
Madelan, S. (2020). Disrupsi Rantai Pasok Masa Pendemi Covid-19. In Analisis Ekonomi Pertanian Saat dan Setelah Pandemi (ISPE Lecture #8; pp. 1–13). INDEF. https://indef.or.id/search?q=Disrupsi
Masyhudzulhak, D. M., Sutawidjaya, A. H., & Nugroho, R. E. (2015). Memahami Penulisan Ilmiah dan Metodologi Penelitian. LP2S-Bogor.
Moreno, J. J. M., Pol, A. P., Abad, A. S., & Blasco, B. C. (2013). Using the R-MAPE Index as a Resistant Measure of Forecast Accuracy. Psichotema Journal, 25(4), 500–506, ISSN 0214-9915. https://doi.org/10.7334/psicothema2013.23
Nadkarni, R., & Ghewari, A. (2016). An Inventory Control using ABC Analysis and FSN Analysis. International Journal of Engineering, Business and Enterprise Applications (IJEBEA), 16(1), 24–28, ISSN(p) 2279-0020, ISSN(e) 2279-0039.
Nuryanto, U. W., Masyhudzulhak, D., Sutawidjaya, A. H., & Saluy, A. B. (2020). The Roles of Green Competitive Advantage as Intervention Between Core Competence and Organisational Performance. International Journal of Innovation, Creativity and Change (IJICC), 11(6), 394–414, ISSN 2201-1323.
Pujawan, I. N., & Mahendrawati, E. (2021). Supply Chain Management (3rd ed.). ANDI- Yogyakarta.
Rachman, R. R., & Saluy, A. B. (2020). The Effect of Macro Economy and Financial Performance on Stock Price with Earning per Share as the Intervening Variable (a Study on Retail Trading Company in IDX in 2011-2018). Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 1(2), 275–290.
Russell, R. S., & Taylor III, B. W. (2011). Operations Management, Creating Value Along the Supply Chain (7th ed.). John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Saluy, A. B. (2018). Recruitment and Profitability Management (Case Study of Primary Sector Companies Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange 2007-2016). IOP Conference Seies Material Science and Engineering, 453(1), 12–66.
Saluy, A. B., Musanti, T., & Mulyana, B. (2019). Pengaruh Pelatihan Motivasi Kerja dan Kompetensi Terhadap Kinerja Personel di Makosek Hanudnas I. Journal of Management and Business Review, 16, 87–109.
Saluy, A.B., & Treshia, Y. (2018). Pengaruh Motivasi Kerja, Disiplin Kerja dan Kompensasi Terhadap Kinerja Karyawan (Studi Kaus di Perusahaan PT IE). Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Dan Bisnis, 2(1), 53–70.
Saluy, Ahmad Badawi, Kemalasari, N., & Novawiguna. (2018). The Role of Organizational Culture, Organizational Commitment, and Styles of Transformational Leadership towards Employee Performance. International Conference on Business, Economic and Administrative Sciences (ICBEAS), 12(8).
Saluy, Ahmad Badawi, & Madelan, S. (2018). The Global Impact on Creative Economy Development for Local Tourism Destination. International Conference on Management, Conomics and Business (ICMEB), 3, 185.
Sinaga, D., Madelan, S., & Saluy, A. B. (2021). Analysis Supply Chain Management Performance Using SCOR Method in Compressor Distributor Company at PT. Pola Petro Development. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology (IJISRT), 6(2), 91–102, ISSN 2456-2165.
Sofyan, D. K. (2013). Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi (1st ed.). Graha Ilmu, Yogyakarta.
Suzulia, M. T., & Saluy, A. B. (2020). The Effect of Capital Structure, Company Growth, and Inflation on Firm Value with Profitability as Intervening Variable (Study on Manufacturing Companies Listed on BEI Period 2014 - 2018). Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 1(1), 95–109.
Swanson, D. A. (2015). On the Relationship Among Values of the Same Summary Measure of Error when it is Used Across Multiple Characteristics at the Same Point in Time: An Examination of MALPE and MAPE. Review of Economics & Finance, 5(1), 1–14, ISSN(p) 1923-7529, ISSN(e) 1923-8401.
Tratar, L. F. (2014). Improved Holt-Winters Method: A Case of Overnight Stays of Tourists in Republic Of Slovenia. Journal Economic and Business Review, 16(1), 5–17, ISSN(p) 2392-1641, ISSN(e) 2450-0097.
Utoyo, A. P., & Madelan, S. (2020). Analisis Forecasting Persediaan Raw Material dan Penententuan Safety Stock di PT. YZ Bogor. Indikator: Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Dan Bisnis, Vol 4, No 1 (2020), 161–188, ISSN(p) 2598-6783; ISSN(e) 2598-4888. https://doi.org/10.22441/indikator.2020.v4i1.010.
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2021-05-08
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