PREDICTION OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN THE AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENT INDUSTRY: AN APPLICATION OF ALTMAN, SPRINGATE, OHLSON, AND ZMIJEWSKI MODELS

Authors

  • Hendra Pratama Universitas Mercu Buana, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Bambang Mulyana Universitas Mercu Buana, Jakarta, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38035/dijefa.v1i4.533

Keywords:

Financial Distress, Prediction Models, Financial Ratios, Manufacturing Company

Abstract

This study aims to identify and examine the condition of financial distress in the automotive component industry issuers in the period 2014 ~ 2018, using the Altman Z-score, Springate S-score, Ohlson O-score, and Zmijewski X-score against financial ratios as an analysis form of company management to predict the early warnings of company bankruptcy. This study uses quantitative, secondary, and panel data; while the sample uses a non-probability boring sampling technique of 11 companies. The results showed that these four models can predict financial distress by identifying each model. Altman’s model found 8 distress zone points, 16 grey zone points, and 31 safe zone points. Springate’s model found 37 points in the distress zone, and 18 points in the safe zone. Ohlson's model found 3 points in the distress zone, and 52 points in the safe zone. Zmijewski's model found only 1 point in the distress zone

References

Altman, E. I., Danovi, A., & Falini, A. (2013). Z-Score Model’s Application to Italian Companies Subject to Extraordinary Administration. 1–15. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263167445_Z_Score_models’_application_to_Italian_companies_subject_to_extraordinary_administration
Beaver, W. H., Correia, M., & McNichols, M. F. (2011). Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Financial Distress, Foundation and Trends in Accounting. Foundation and Trends in Accounting, 5(2), 99–173. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/1400000018
Hantono. (2019). Memprediksi Financial Distress Dengan Menggunakan Model Altman Score, Grover Score, Zmijewski Score (Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Perbankan). Going Concern: Jurnal Riset Akuntansi, 14(1), 168–180. https://doi.org/10.32400/gc.14.1.22372.2019
Hastuti, R. T. (2018). Analisis Komparasi Model Prediksi Financial Distress Altman, Springate, Grover Dan Ohlson Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2011-2013. Jurnal Ekonomi, 20(3), 446. https://doi.org/10.24912/je.v20i3.405
Kordestani, G., Biglari, V., & Bakhtiari, M. (2011). Ability of combinations of cash flow components to predict financial distress. Business: Theory and Practice, 12(3), 277–285. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2011.28
Mulyana, B., & Asysyukur, A. (2017). Analisis Kebangkrutan Pada Emiten Tambang Batu Bara Di Indonesia Tahun 2012-2016. https://publikasi.mercubuana.ac.id/index.php/indikator/article/view/3282
Platt, H. D., & Platt, M. B. (2006). Comparing Financial Distress and Bankruptcy. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 1(1), 1–27. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/256067772_Comparing_Financial_Distress_and_Bankruptcy#:~:text=Our hypothesis is that financial,protect their assets from creditors.
Putri, M. J. (2016). Analisis Komparatif Financial Distress Korporasi Manufaktur Elektronik Jepang, Pasca Krisis Financial Global 2008. Dengan endekatan Model Altman, Ohlson, Zmijewski [Universitas Mercu Buana]. http://digilib.mercubuana.ac.id/skripsi1.php?ID_Skripsi=0000041622&NIM=55114120034
Widyanty, W. (2017). Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Dan Ohlson Dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress (Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan LQ-45 BEI 2013-2014). Universitas Mercu Buana. https://repository.mercubuana.ac.id/38851/
Wulandari, V., Nur DP, E., & Julita. (2014). Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Springate, Ohlson, Fulmer, CA-Score dan Zmijewski Dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress (studi empiris pada Perusahaan Food and Beverages yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2010-2012). Jurnal Online Mahasiswa Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Riau, 1(2), 1–18. https://jom.unri.ac.id/index.php/JOMFEKON/article/view/4364

Downloads

Published

2020-09-23

Issue

Vol. 1 No. 4 (2020): Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting (September - October 2020)

Section

Articles

License

Authors who publish their manuscripts in this journal agree to the following conditions:

  1. The copyright on each article belongs to the author(s).
  2. The author acknowledges that the Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting (DIJEFA) has the right to be the first to publish with a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
  3. Authors can submit articles separately, arrange for the non-exclusive distribution of manuscripts that have been published in this journal into other versions (e.g., sent to the author's institutional repository, publication into books, etc.), by acknowledging that the manuscript has been published for the first time in the Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting (DIJEFA).